Probability Quotes

Probability Quotes by Brian Tracy, Rene Descartes, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Ross McKitrick, Charles Caleb Colton, Philip Morrison and many others.

Activity equals results. If you want to increase your success, increase your activity. Increase contact with customers. The more people you contact, the higher your sales will be because of the law of probabilities.
Variant: When it is not in our power to follow what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable.
Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that.
To those of us who have been following the climate debate for decades, the next few years will be electrifying. There is a high probability we will witness the crackup of one of the most influential scientific paradigms of the 20th century, and the implications for policy and global politics could be staggering.
If often happens too, both in courts and in cabinets, that there are two things going on together,–a main plot and an under-plot; and he that understands only one of them will, in all probability, be the dupe of both. A mistress may rule a monarch, but some obscure favorite may rule the mistress.
The probability of success is difficult to estimate; but if we never search the chance of success is zero.
The greater the loyalty of a group toward the group, the greater is the motivation among the members to achieve the goals of the group, and the greater the probability that the group will achieve its goals.
Rensis Likert
The more connected that individual is to an issue they care about, the higher probability there is they will stay involved over a longer period of time.
If scientific reasoning were limited to the logical processes of arithmetic, we should not get very far in our understanding of the physical world
But the stupidity which is common to all such “explanations” is, of course, simply that of proceeding as though the merits of a theory – such things as truth, or probability, or explanatory power – could not possibly be among the reasons for its currency.
In all probability, when the 1919 series is over, a diagnosis of it will show that the final result was brought about by some unusual situation or freak happening that was given no consideration when the relative strength of the two clubs was considered.
As a doctor, as a man of science, I can tell you there is no such thing as curses Everything just happens as a question of probability. The statistical likelihood of a specific event.
All knowledge resolves itself into probability. … In every judgment, which we can form concerning probability, as well as concerning knowledge, we ought always to correct the first judgment deriv’d from the nature of the object, by another judgment, deriv’d from the nature of the understanding.
Even very low-probability events can, and indeed do, occur.
In the financial system we have today, with less risk concentrated in banks, the probability of systemic financial crises may be lower than in traditional bank-centered financial systems.
Fame, we may understand, is no sure test of merit, but only a probability of such; it is an accident, not a property of man.
In its efforts to learn as much as possible about nature, modern physics has found that certain things can never be “known” with certainty. Much of our knowledge must always remain uncertain. The most we can know is in terms of probabilities.
I may finally call attention to the probability that the association of paternal and maternal chromosomes in pairs and their subsequent separation during the reducing division as indicated above may constitute the physical basis of the Mendelian law of heredity.
Walter Sutton
People assign much higher probability to the truth of their opinions than is warranted.
Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.
Many modern philosophers claim that probability is relation between an hypothesis and the evidence for it.
An aphorism is an extreme synthesis of thesis and antithesis, theory and practice, it’s a mixture of intuition and observation, hypothesis and illusions of certainty and probability, history and stupidity.
As for a future life, every man must judge for himself between conflicting vague probabilities.
…99 percent confident that the world really was getting warmer and that there was a high degree of probability that it was due to human-made greenhouse gases.
In the financial system we have today, with less risk concentrated in banks, the probability of systemic financial crises may be lower than in traditional bank-centered financial systems
Earlier attempts to show that simpler theories always have higher prior probabilities have failed, but there is a restricted circumstance in which the claim is right.
From principles is derived probability, but truth or certainty is obtained only from facts.
Does the logic connect? What are the range of probably outcomes? You want to figure out what those probabilities are and ideally be the House. It’s fine to gamble, as long as you’re the House. Also, listen to critical feedback, particularly from friends. Generally they will be thinking it but they won‘t tell you.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
ROMANCE, n. Fiction that owes no allegiance to the God of Things as They Are. In the novel the writer‘s thought is tethered to probability, but in romance it ranges at will over the entire region of the imagination . . .
One of the elementary rules of nature is that, in the absence of a law prohibiting an event or phenomenon, it is bound to occur with some degree of probability. To put it simply and crudely: Anything that can happen does happen.
Kenneth W. Ford
Blind nature will nearly always select the most probable, but man can let the most improbable become actual.
I think having worked in a department store setting, if my life had not taken a drastically different turn when I became an actor, there’s a very high probability I would have continued to work at the department store.
I think we worry way too much about where books should fit inside genres. In a romance, the hero and heroine are on a journey together, and no matter how awful it gets, by the end of the book they’ll be in love, with the probability of a happy ending.
Contrary to the popular notion that only creationism relies on the supernatural, evolutionism must as well, since the probabilities of random formation of life are so tiny as to require a ‘miracle‘ for spontaneous generation tantamount to a theological argument.
Chandra Wickramasinghe
A lot of boys in my poker circle are mathematicians who play on probability. I don’t have that kind of brain, so I rely on instinct. But I recently found out that poker and cards in general go way back in my family gene pool.
The art of drawing conclusions from experiments and observations consists in evaluating probabilities and in estimating whether they are sufficiently great or numerous enough to constitute proofs. This kind of calculation is more complicated and more difficult than it is commonly thought to be. . . .
Wherever you observe persecution, there is more than a probability that truth lies on il the persecuted side.
What patients seek is not scientific knowledge that doctors hide, but existential authenticity each person must find on her own… the angst of facing mortality has no remedy in probability.
Fear was stronger than the calculation of probabilities.
Life is a school of probability.
The laws of history are as absolute as the laws of physics, and if the probabilities of error are greater, it is only because history does not deal with as many humans as physics does atoms, so that individual variations count for more.
Only in Britain could it be thought a defect to be too clever by half. The probability is that too many people are too stupid by three-quarters.
I think that the existence of Beethoven is remarkable, but I do not bristle at the suggestion that this event had a low probability given the initial state of the universe.
Is it conceivable that a newly emancipated people can soar to the heights of liberty, and, unlike Icarus, neither have its wings melt nor fall into an abyss? Such a marvel is inconceivable and without precedent. There is no reasonable probability to bolster our hopes.
We can never achieve absolute truth but we can live hopefully by a system of calculated probabilities.
The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.
Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.
It is almost possible to predict one or two days in advance, within a rather broad range of probability, what the weather is going to be; it is even thought that it will not be impossible to publish daily forecasts, which would be very useful to soci.
Information: the negative reciprocal value of probability.
Those who ignore Statistics are condemned to reinvent it.
Bradley Efron
The province of faith begins where probabilities cease and sight and sense fail.
Where there’s a will, there’s a way. Hackers tend to find a way. Code is also expanding. More lines of code means more probability that there is an exploit that can be [used].
Coincidences, in general, are great stumbling blocks in the way of that class of thinkers who have been educated to know nothing of the theory of probabilities- that theory to which the most glorious objects of human research are indebted for the most glorious of illustration.
They all talked at once, their voices insistent and contradictory and impatient, making of unreality a possibility, then a probability, then an incontrovertible fact, as people will when their desires become words.
Do not expect to arrive at certainty in every subject which you pursue. There are a hundred things wherein we mortals. . . must be content with probability, where our best light and reasoning will reach no farther.
Scientists do not believe in fundamental and absolute certainties. For the scientist, certainty is never an end, but a search; not the ordering of certainty, but its exploration. For the scientist, certainty represents the highest degree of probability.
Failure to meditate in the morning increases the probability of chaos throughout the day.
Protein synthesis is a central problem for the whole of biology, and that it is in all probability closely related to gene action.
I have found, unfortunately, that if I take on too many projects at one time, there is a higher probability of those projects sucking.
If scientific reasoning were limited to the logical processes of arithmetic, we should not get very far in our understanding of the physical world. One might as well attempt to grasp the game of poker entirely by the use of the mathematics of probability.
If you look like your passport photo, in all probability you need the journey.
The beauty of any conspiracy theory is that because it can’t be proved, that just makes it more ‘real.’ It’s not a question of believing or not believing, really; it’s more a question of just accepting a series of probabilities that lead to an undeniable conclusion.
In all probability, mental states are processes and activities of the brain. Exactly what activities, and exactly at what level of description, remains to be seen.
The machine has no feelings, it feels no fear and no hope … it operates according to the pure logic of probability. For this reason I assert that the robot perceives more accurately than man.
It is profitable wisdom to know when we have done enough: Much time and pains are spared in not flattering ourselves against probabilities.
Money isn’t always the best motivator. If you leave a $50 check after dinner with friends, you don’t increase the probability of being invited back.
We are not good at recognizing distant threats even if their probability is 100%. Society ignoring [peak oil] is like the people of Pompeii ignoring the rumblings below Vesuvius.
James R. Schlesinger
Consider nothing impossible, then treat possiblities as probabilities.
If a lack of empirical foundations is a defect of the theory of logical probability, it is also a defect of deductive logic.
When a person feels disposed to over estimate his own importance, let him remember that mankind got along very well before his birth, and that in all probability they will they will get along very well after his death.
There are no absolute certainties in this universe. A man must try to whip order into a yelping pack of probabilities, and uniform success is impossible.
You know that, according to quantum theory, if two particles collide with enough energy you can, in principle, with an infinitesimal probability, produce two grand pianos.
Physics tells us observations can’t be predicted absolutely. Rather, there’s a range of possible observations each with a different probability.
The probability that we face global warming caused by fossil fuels is now so overwhelming that it is legitimate to doubt the motives of those who deny it
When you turn from one room to the next, when your animal senses no longer perceive the sounds of the dishwasher, the ticking clock, the smell of a chicken roasting – the kitchen and all its seemingly discrete bits dissolve into nothingness – or into waves of probability.
The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance.
In a system of free trade and free markets poor countries – and poor people – are not poor because others are rich. Indeed, if others became less rich the poor would in all probability become still poorer.
Do not mistake probability for truth, for it is a notorious liar.
Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero.
If we look at the way the universe behaves, quantum mechanics gives us fundamental, unavoidable indeterminacy, so that alternative histories of the universe can be assigned probability.
Its not even probable, let alone scientifically proven, that HIV causes AIDS. If there is evidence that HIV causes AIDS, there should be scientific documents which either singly or collectively demonstrate that fact, at least with a high probability. There are no such documents.
The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just.
REASON, v.i. To weight probabilities in the scales of desire.
It is the concept of likelihood that a real understanding of probability resides, and we must learn how to measure it.
We don’t know the probabilities of future events. Still, you have to take action, and so you do it on gut feeling. That’s the world we live in.
All knowledge degenerates into probability.
Everything is allowable in literature, but what is not allowable in criticism is objection on the grounds of probability.
One of the most striking and fundamental things about probability theory is that it leads to an understanding of the otherwise strange fact that events which are individually capricious and unpredictable can, when treated en masse, lead to very stable average performances.
The probability that a genius can do stupid things is much higher than the probability that a stupid can do genius things.
The entrepreneurial mind-set is that risk is the heightened probability that there is a big range of possible outcomes.
The theory of probabilities is basically only common sense reduced to a calculus. It makes one estimate accurately what right-minded people feel by a sort of instinct, often without being able to give a reason for it.
You never get bored … when you have the probabilities of your next meal to speculate on, pro and con.
On the relationship side, if you teach people to respond actively and constructively when someone they care about has a victory, it increases love and friendship and decreases the probability of depression.
As in the piling up of hypothetical alternatives, creative accidents follow the law of probabilities the more we fish, the more likely we are to get a strike.
The photographer, like an acrobat, must defy the laws of probability or even of possibility; at the limit, he must defy those of the interesting: the photograph becomes surprising when we do not know why it has been taken.
You must maximize the probability that someone shows up at front door of your store or website and ends up with a solved problem.
Trust a witness in all matters in which neither his self-interest, his passions, his prejudices, nor the love of the marvellous is strongly concerned. When they are involved, require corroborative evidence in exact proportion to the contravention of probability by the thing testified.
Probability of human error is considerably higher than that of machine error.
Kenneth Appel
A man must study general conditions, to seize them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities.
The fact that we don’t keep repeating tests in the same arena is not because the probability of the hypothesis showing its falsity in other arenas goes up after it has passed tests in one arena.
I think the probability of a supernatural creator existing is very very low.
Results rarely specify their causes unambiguously. If we have no direct evidence of fossils or human chronicles, if we are forced to infer a process only from its modern results, then we are usually stymied or reduced to speculation about probabilities. For many roads lead to almost any Rome.
Liberty is a blessing so inestimable, that, wherever there appears any probability of recovering it, a nation may willingly run many hazards, and ought not even to repine at the greatest effusion of blood or dissipation of treasure.
One: demonstrations always crash. And two: the probability of them crashing goes up exponentially with the number of people watching.
Following Korzybski, I put things in probabilities, not absolutes… My only originality lies in applying this zetetic attitude outside the hardest of the hard sciences, physics, to softer sciences and then to non-sciences like politics, ideology, jury verdicts and, of course, conspiracy theory.
Yet there seemed to be some truth in the law of probability, according to which the chance of success is directly proportionate to the number of repetitions.
Investing is not a natural science but rather a social science. So, it’s never purely empirical; what you are trying to do is everything you possibly can to enhance your probabilities of being right more often than being wrong.
Even the humblest men have a strange reason behind greed. Every man thinks money solves problems – and every man thinks not just of himself, but his next three generations – there is a probability he will live to see those generations – and he wants to care for them in times of strife.
When a coincidence seems amazing, that’s because the human mind isn’t wired to naturally comprehend probability & statistics.
He was at a starting point which makes many a man’s career a fine subject for betting, if there were any gentlemen given to that amusement who could appreciate the complicated probabilities of an arduous purpose. . . .
Generally, a betting system for which each wager depends only on present resources and present probability of success is known as a Markov betting system.
The balance of probabilities, therefore, comes out strongly against the existence of a god.
The true power is in the imagination which dares to speculate upon that which is not yet. The imagination, backed by great expectations, can bring about almost any reality within the range of probabilities.
Past experience, on the shuttle and the Titan rockets, suggests that large multi-segment solid rockets have a probability of failure of 0.5 to 1 per cent.
Probability fractions arise from our knowledge and from our ignorance.
Moral certainty is never more than probability.
Giovanni Battista Beccaria
A problem of statistical inference or, more simply, a statistics problem is a problem in which data that have been generated in accordance with some unknown probability distribution must be analyzed and some type of inference about the unknown distribution must be made.
Morris H. DeGroot
The moment of enlightenment is when a person’s dreams of possibilities become images of probabilities.
Vic Braden
The new always happens against the overwhelming odds of statistical laws and their probability, which for all practical, everyday purposes amounts to certainty; the new therefore always appears in the guise of a miracle.
In far from equilibrium conditions, the concept of probability that underlies Boltzmann’s order principle is no longer valid if the structures we observe do not correspond to a maximum of complexions
A stochastic process is about the results of convolving probabilities-which is just what management is about, as well.
I’m trying to construct a world that maximises the probability that SpaceX continues its mission without me.
This branch of mathematics [Probability] is the only one, I believe, in which good writers frequently get results which are entirely erroneous.
Philosophy goes no further than probabilities, and in every assertion keeps a doubt in reserve.
If Death stepped miraculously through the glass and came in after you, in all probability you just got up and went along with him, ferociously but quietly.
There is no error which hath not some appearance of probability resembling truth, which, when men who study to be singular find out, straining reason, they then publish to the world matter of contention and jangling.
It has been pointed out already that no knowledge of probabilities, less in degree than certainty, helps us to know what conclusions are true, and that there is no direct relation between the truth of a proposition and its probability. Probability begins and ends with probability.
If you find that your organization can’t make the hard decisions that Scrum demands, then high-risk, uncertain projects have very little probability of success in your organization.
In all probability an outburst of desperation in the midst of general submissiveness will always help.
When you do life a certain way, it’s bound to give you a higher level of probability to succeed, and that’s what we preach.
A good test case is a test case that has a high probability of detecting an undiscovered error, not a test case that show that the program works correctly.
Glenford Myers
A property in the 100-year floodplain has a 96 percent chance of being flooded in the next hundred years without global warming. The fact that several years go by without a flood does not change that probability.
Our beliefs are not just estimates of probabilities. They are also the instruments that guide our actions.
If WE claim only reasonable probability, it will be as much as men who love the truth can ever at any given moment hope to have within their grasp.
At one level, SXSW exemplifies serendipity, because whenever I come, I get these unexpected meetings with people I never knew existed, and you couldn’t have planned it. But by making the choice to come to SXSW, I’m increasing the probability of those encounters.
Probability is the guide of life, and of death, too.
If that’s true and the rate stays like that for another 40 years, there’s a good probability that somebody who is active in the credit economy for that period of time might be a victim. But that’s not a given.
Keith Anderson
Natural selection is a mechanism for generating an exceedingly high degree of improbability.
Digital television is no longer a probability, it is a certainty.
Tessa Jowell
Religious fanaticism has clearly produced, and in all probability will continue to produce, enormous amounts of bickering, fighting, violence, bloodshed, homicide, feuds, wars, and genocide.
They basically ask their engineers to volunteer some probability figures, then they take the average. This is not science. This is voodoo.
Religious faith depends on a host of social, psychological and emotional factors that have little or nothing to do with probabilities, evidence and logic.
We cannot judge either of the feelings or of the characters of men with perfect accuracy from their actions or their appearance in public; it is from their careless conversations, their half-finished sentences, that we may hope with the greatest probability of success to discover their real characters.
The most important thing in life is to stop saying ‘I wish‘ and start saying ‘I will.’ Consider nothing impossible, then treat possibilities as probabilities.
Why couldn’t she have this, just enjoy this, without creating obstacles, digging up problems, worrying about mistakes, about tomorrow‘s? Why let the maybe‘s, the what if‘s, the probabilities spoil something so lovely?
There is a great probability that our loss of capacity for enjoying the positive joys of life is largely due to the decreased sensibility of our senses and our lack of full use of them. All human happiness is sensuous happiness.
He who has heard the same thing told by 12,000 eye-witnesses has only 12,000 probabilities, which are equal to one strong probability, which is far from certain.
The Law of Probabilities: the more things you try, the more likely one of them will work.
I found maths very easy, but I still enjoyed discovering things. You have to have the necessary information. For example, what’s the difference between the mean and the median? Probability fascinated me. You have to think very carefully about things, which is the way my mind works anyway.
Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4.
Nonetheless, it still remains true that as a set of cognitive beliefs, religious doctrines constitute a speculative hypothesis of an extremely low order of probability.
A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps.
I would have to say the probability of us dying seems extremely high.
A miscalculation is not negligence, nor prudence a crime. I am a scientist. I base my action or inaction upon probability and evidence. There is a reason we call science a discipline! Inferior minds bolt or build pyres to roast the witches in their midst!
Consider the case of a person who holds a view with probability 1. Then coherence says that it is no use having a debate with them because nothing will change their mind.
The price of freedom is the probability of crime. The price of protection is the probability of slavery.
Dan Geer
Let me state what the official IPCC prediction is: Sea levels could go up as much as three-quarters of a meter in this century, but there is a reasonable probability it could be much higher than that.
If you leave school at 16 then, in all probability, there is a machine that can do what you can do better and cheaper. And Trump can’t do anything to change that.
On their way toward modern science human beings have discarded meaning. The concept is replaced by the formula, the cause by rules and probability.
Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.
Every conjecture we can form with regard to the works of God has as little probability as the conjectures of a child with regard to the works of an adult.
Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation.
We cannot live on probabilities. The faith in which we can live bravely and die in peace must be a certainty, so far as it professes to be a faith at all, or it is nothing.
Let probability and sample size do the heavy lifting.
The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there’s a 90% probability you’ll get it wrong.
No man will be found in whose mind airy notions do not sometimes tyrannize, and force him to hope or fear beyond the limits of sober probability.
When it looks like the sun isn’t going to shine any more, God puts a rainbow in the clouds. Each one of us has the possibility, the responsibility, the probability to be the rainbow in the clouds.
We may not be able to get certainty, but we can get probability, and half a loaf is better than no bread.
First get a clear notion of what you desire to accomplish and then in all probability you will succeed in doing it.
Henry Maudslay
If in a discussion of many matters … we are not able to give perfectly exact and self-consistent accounts, do not be surprised: rather we would be content if we provide accounts that are second to none in probability.
Probability is the very guide of life.
Almost all life depends on probabilities.
The probability I knock out Chael Sonnen is very big. Man, everybody knows his game. He is never going to take me down and I’m going to break his nose with my knee.
For a film I shot on the most difficult mountain on God’s wide earth in Patagonia for a sequence where there was high probability some digital effects were needed, somebody made storyboards and I quickly ignored them, after half an hour I ignored them and I never used any digital effect.
Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that. The Titanic saved lives because we’re building bigger and bigger ships. So these people died, but we have effectively improved the safety of the system, and nothing failed in vain.
He who sees different ways to the same end, will, unless he watches carefully over his own conduct, lay out too much of his attention upon the comparison of probabilities and the adjustment of expedients, and pause in the choice of his road, till some accident intercepts his journey.
Sometimes what’s recommended to the people is something different than what’s recommended to the leaders, because I have been recommended to use hydroxychloroquine as a prophylaxis and the probability of this harming you is very low.
History cannot be reduced to a set of statistics and probabilities.
Hope is the belief in the probability of the possible rather than the necessity of the probable.
You want something, you dwell upon it consciously for a while, you consciously imagine it coming to the forefront of probabilities, closer to your actuality. Then you drop it like a pebble into Framework 2, forget about it as much as possible for a fortnight, and do this in a certain rhythm.
It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000. The higher figures come from the working engineers, and the very low figures from management.
We don’t deal in absolutes. We deal in probabilities.
The true and the approximately true are apprehended by the same faculty; it may also be noted that men have a sufficient natural instinct for what is true, and usually do arrive at the truth. Hence the man who makes a good guess at truth is likely to make a good guess at probabilities.
The study of history, while it does not endow with prophecy, may indicate lines of probability.
Legends of prediction are common throughout the whole Household of Man. Gods speak, spirits speak, computers speak. Oracular ambiguity or statistical probability provides loopholes, and discrepancies are expunged by Faith.
The artist reserves the right to remove a blot on the landscape, to change positions of things, to suit his composition, providing only that he does not transgress the laws of probability.
The road is a strange place. Shuffling along, I looked up and you were there walking across the grass toward my truck on an August day. In retrospect, it seems inevitable – it could not have been any other way– a case of what I call the high probability of the improbable
Maybe we should teach schoolchildren probability theory and investment risk management.
Most people think the Iraq war has increased the probability of an attack. However, it’s difficult to put this aspect into financial terms.
Most of us think that we are ‘better than average’ in most things. We are also ‘miscalibrated,’ meaning that our sense of the probability of events doesn’t line up with reality. When we say we are sure about a certain fact, for example, we may well be right only half the time.
While feeling far less injured by toil than my friends took for granted I must be, I yet was always aware of the strong probability that my life would end as the lives of hard literary workers usually end, – in paralysis, with months or years of imbecility.
There is no reason to regard God as immune from consideration along the spectrum of probabilities. And there is certainly no reason to suppose that, just because God can be neither proved nor disproved, his probability of existence is 50 per cent.
We often regret we did not do otherwise, when that very otherwise would, in all probability, have done for us.
With caution judge of probability. Things deemed unlikely, e’en impossible, experience oft hath proved to be true.
Some reasonable term ought to be allowed to enable aliens to get rid of foreign and acquire American attachments; to learn the principles and imbibe the spirit of our government; and to admit of a probability at least, of their feeling a real interest in our affairs.
The Old Testament contains over 300 references to the Messiah that were fulfilled in Jesus Christ. Computations using the science of probability on just 8 of these prophecies show the chance that someone could have fulfilled all 8 prophecies is 10 (to the 17th power), or 1 in 100 quadrillion.
Fritz Ridenour
The historical museum has to be very conservative and careful in its choices. The modern museum, on the other hand, has to be audacious, to take chances. It has to consider the probability that it would be wrong in a good many cases and take the consequences later.
The probability that the bowman’s arrow hits the deer does not lie in the arrow or the deer. It lies in the bowman’s mind.
Bart Kosko
It is a part of probability that many improbable things will happen.
Wisdom – meaning judgment acting on experience, common sense, available knowledge, and a decent appreciation of probability.
The nice thing about baseball is that all of the possible outcomes are known – it’s not quite as messy as the real world. That makes the game an excellent playground for probability.
The probability of ten consecutive heads is 0.1 percent; thus, when you have millions of coin tossers, or investors, in the end there will be thousands of very successful practitioners of coin tossing, or stock picking.
They were being driven to a prison, through no fault of their own, in all probability for life. In comparison, how much easier it would be to walk to the gallows than to this tomb of living horrors!
All that belongs to human understanding, in this deep ignorance and obscurity, is to be sceptical, or at least cautious, and not to admit of any hypothesis whatever, much less of any which is supported by no appearance of probability.
One important measurement issue concerns the fat tails problem that I mentioned earlier. VAR is concerned with extreme outcomes. If the tails of the probability distributions we are using are too thin, our VAR measures are likely to be too low.
Lies, fables and romances must needs be probable, but not the truth and foundation of our faith.
motivation is highest when the probability of success is 50 percent: We don’t get involved if the task is too easy or too hard.
Death is always a constant possibility and probability and of course an inevitability, as well.
Statistically, the probability of any one of us being here is so small that you’d think the mere fact of existing would keep us all in a contented dazzlement of surprise.
The fact that I have no remedy for all the sorrows of the world is no reason for my accepting yours. It simply supports the strong probability that yours is a fake.
It was our use of probability theory as logic that has enabled us to do so easily what was impossible for those who thought of probability as a physical phenomenon associated with “randomness“. Quite the opposite; we have thought of probability distributions as carriers of information.
Edwin Thompson Jaynes
In a high tech world the cure for the tragic shortcomings and perilous fallacies of human intuition is education, but education in economics, evolutionary biology, probability and statistics – unfortunately most High School and College curricula have barely changed since Medieval times!
The probability of failure doesn’t matter to me.
I described to my patent lawyer our new algorithm-that I was hoping to patent- about detecting clustering, that involved three probabilities О± , ОІ, Оі that add-up to 1, and mentioned that it is like “a three-sided coin”. A few days later he came up with a patent application for a “three-sided-coin”.
Sometimes the probabilities are very close to certainties, but they’re never really certainties
Statement: A girl and a boy jump into a river. The boy swims over to the girl and says, “God, it’s cold.” Question: What’s the probability they will kiss?
Based on the law of probability Everything is possible because The sheer existence of possibility Confirms the existence Of impossibility.
The most important questions of life are indeed, for the most part, really only problems of probability.
The solution of the Monty Hall problem hinges on the concept of information, and more specifically, on the relationship between added information and probability.
Before you invest, you must ensure that you have realistically assessed your probability of being right and how you will react to the consequences of being wrong.
Lest men suspect your tale untrue, Keep probability in view.
I failed math twice, never fully grasping probability theory. I mean, first off, who cares if you pick a black ball or a white ball out of the bag? And second, if you’re bent over about the color, don’t leave it to chance. Look in the damn bag and pick the color you want.
Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.
If a guy tells me the probability of failure is 1 in 100,000, I know he’s full of crap.
I like the probability of the impossible.
So vast, so limitless in capacity is man’s imagination to disperse and burn away the rubble-dross of fact and probability, leaving only truth and dream.
Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities.
We balance probabilities and choose the most likely. It is the scientific use of the imagination.
Mental Management is the process of maximising the probability of having a consistent mental performance, under pressure, on demand
Lanny Bassham
I like – I love calculus. I love linear algebra, probability and statistics, that kind of stuff. I just really like that.
A person who is psychic is following a line of probability to see a probable future; but it can change. Another causal fact will interfere and that future won’t happen.
The risk of a business being hit by a low probability, high impact event is far higher than most boards realize because the number of potential wild cards is so great.
A reasonable scale of probability-what is likely-forbids believing a whole range of imaginative possibilities, even though we do not know anything for sure.
Synchronicity: A meaningful coincidence of two or more events where something other than the probability of chance is involved.
Seeking an acquisition from the start is more than just bad advice for an entrepreneur. For the entrepreneur it leads to short term tactical decisions rather than company-building decisions and in my view often reduces the probability of success.
Hope is the confusion of the desire for a thing with its probability.
The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.
Arguments derived from probabilities are idle.
The probability of separate worlds meeting is very small. The lure of it is immense. We send starships. We fall in love.
We pride ourselves on being the only species that understands the concept of risk, yet we have a confounding habit of worrying about mere possibilities while ignoring probabilities, building barricades against perceived dangers while leaving ourselves exposed to real ones.
The value of an idea has nothing whatsoever to do with the sincerity of the man who expresses it. Indeed, the probabilities are that the more insincere the man is, the more purely intellectual will the idea be, as in that case it will not be coloured by either his wants, his desires, or his prejudices.
… there is wisdom in madness and strong probability of truth in all accusations, for people are complete, and everyone is capable of everything.
Such an event is probable in Agathon’s sense of the word: ‘it is probable,’ he says, ‘that many things should happen contrary to probability.’
There is certainly the intention of efforts like the Common Core to raise education standards and make sure that every student masters advanced math concepts – algebra, geometry, statistics and probability.
Certainty is not biologically possible. We must learn (and teach our children) to tolerate the unpleasantness of uncertainty. Science has given us the language and tools of probabilities. We have methods for analyzing and ranking opinion according to their likelihood of correctness. That is enough.
Customers are wrestling with mission-critical decisions, evaluating solutions that all sound the same, and struggling to achieve the value they expect, when experience has shown them that far too many solutions come packaged with a high degree of risk and a low probability of success.
Jeff Thull
Why, sir, there is every probability that you will soon be able to tax it!
Said to William Gladstone, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, when he asked about the practical worth of electricity.
The probability that we will get into a car accident is a million times higher than the probability we will suffer as a result of terrorist act.
In an environment where you’ve got to push innovations out the door fast and keep the cost of innovation low, the probability that you’ll be successful is actually much higher.
My district has been hit with three 500-year floods in the last several years, so either you believe that we had a one-in-over-100-million probability that occurred, or you believe as I do that there’s a new normal, and we have changing weather patterns, and we have climate change. This is the science.
A reasonable probability is the only certainty.
Opinion is the companion of probability within the medieval epistemology.
Anything is possible, but not always probable. Innovators increase the probability of the impossible.
Braden Kelley
The probability of the people in power being individuals who would dislike the possession and exercise of power is on a level with the probability that an extremely tender-hearted person would get the job of whipping-master in a slave plantation.
Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it.
Hope does not always require probability.
If you have the feeling of choice, if you feel free, you will be better off. And when I say better off I mean that if people feel they have control over their lives, they call in for fewer sick days from work. They have a lesser probability of having a heart attack or stroke. They live longer. They’re happier.
Probabilities direct the conduct of the wise man.
The word ‘chance’ then expresses only our ignorance of the causes of the phenomena that we observe to occur and to succeed one another in no apparent order. Probability is relative in part to this ignorance, and in part to our knowledge.
It doesn’t matter what your probability of failure is. If there’s a 90% chance of failure, there’s a 10% chance of changing the world.
In this way, there is a strange alchemy to modern campaigning: a candidate must highlight the urgency of the choice facing voters and suggest the possibility – but not probability – of defeat.
Manners,[…] are severly underappreciated in my opinion“. “Oh?” Where practiced well, they remove the probability that someone in my position will be forced to go through the effort of killing someone in yours. Belive that on occasion that much death can become tedious.
Use this day to do something daring, extraordinary and unlike yourself. Take a chance and shape a different pattern in your personal cloud of probability!
I know too well that these arguments from probabilities are imposters, and unless great caution is observed in the use of them, they are apt to be deceptive.
… the novelist is bound by the reasonable possibilities, not the probabilities, of his culture.
Make your judgment trustworthy by trusting it. Cultivate regular periods of silence and meditation. The best time to build judgment is in solitude, when you can think out things for yourself without the probability of interruption.
In corporation [corporate] religions as in others, the heretic must be cast out not because of the probability that he is wrong but because of the possibility that he is right.
A further aspect I should like to discuss is what I call the practice of infinite escape clauses. I believe we developed this practice to avoid facing the conclusion that the probability of self-reproducing state is zero. This is what we must conclude from classical quantum mechanical principles as Wigner demonstrated
Sidney W. Fox
I regard this conclusion as coming in the same sort of category, of historical probability so high as to be virtually certain, as the death of Augustus in AD 14 or the fall of Jerusalem in AD 70
Scientists are stuck in this belief that we tell people probabilities, not absolute answers.
Frankly, I’ve had the opportunity to get certain accolades, make it to the conference finals, get awards, all this other stuff that doesn’t matter. I’m looking only on championship probability. I just feel like I haven‘t accomplished much unless I can somehow get that done.
Not smoking enough will cause lung cancer! If anybody is getting a cancerous activity in the lung, the probabilities are that it’s radiation dosage coupled with the fact that he smokes. And what it does is start to run out the radiation dosage, don’t you see.
If you are a carrier of a particular set of genes, your probability of committing a violent crime goes up by eight hundred and eighty-two percent.
The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.
An ingenious web of probabilities is the surest screen a wise man can place between himself and the truth.
We have to deal with this new type of threat in a way we haven’t yet defined. . . . With a low-probability, high-impact event like this . . . If there’s a one percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.
In the beginning there were only probabilities. The universe could only come into existence if someone observed it. It does not matter that the observers turned up several billion years later. The universe exists because we are aware of it.
There may be aliens in our Milky Way galaxy, and there are billions of other galaxies. The probability is almost certain that there is life somewhere in space.
We didn’t push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would.
The stone that Dr. Johnson once kicked to demonstrate the reality of matter has become dissipated in a diffuse distribution of mathematical probabilities. The ladder that Descartes, Galileo, Newton, and Leibniz erected in order to scale the heavens rests upon a continually shifting, unstable foundation.
The highest historical probability can be adduced in support of the proposition that, if it were possible to annihilate the Bible, and with it all its influences, we should destroy with it the whole spiritual system of the moral world.
Sometimes the probabilities are very close to certainties, but they’re never really certainties.
Imagination is a good horse to carry you over the ground – not a flying carpet to set you free from probability.
Hope is not the basis for policy. Wise policymakers analyze major issues such as immigration carefully and look at facts and probabilities instead of just hoping for the best.
The principle of [divine] purpose… stares the biologist in the face wherever he looks… The probability for such an event as the origin of DNA molecules to have occurred by sheer chance is just too small to be seriously considered.
Ernst Boris Chain
The more people you contact, the higher your sales will be because of the law of probabilities.
Every company needs to have a skunkworks, to try things that have a high probability of failing. You try to minimize failure, but at the same time, if you’re not willing to try things that are inherently risky, you’re not going to make progress.
Although we deal with probabilities and expectations, the actual results can deviate substantially from such expectations, particularly on a short-term basis.
My advice to the unborn is, don’t be born with a gambling instinct unless you have a good sense of probabilities.
Jack Dreyfus
The probability of life ever evolving on Earth was slim to none. It’s insane that we’re all walking around and talking.
I don’t believe in providence and fate, as a technologist I am used to reckoning with the formulae of probability.